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September 09, 2006

Missed Chances

Newsmax.com has a list of the events that preceeded 9-11 that could have lead to the capture of killing of UBL.

Here are several of the missed opportunities to stop bin Laden prior to the devastating attacks of 9/11:

# June 1995: The CIA concluded that Osama bin Laden authorized the failed assassination attempt on Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. The CIA also concluded that Hassan al-Turabi, Sudan's leader, knew where bin Laden was living and aided the plot. The United States weighed options for attacking bin Laden and al-Turabi's headquarters in Sudan's capital, but retaliation plans were ultimately rejected - as tantamount to staging war with Sudan.

# February 1996 to October 1998: The United States targeted bin Laden's satellite phone calls. After a U.S. missile strike against bin Laden's camps on Aug. 20, 1998, however, an official leaked that the United States could track his movements through the use of the phone - nixing this key intelligence coup.

# March to May 1996: Varying unverified reports indicated that bin Laden's sanctuary, Sudan, offered to hand over bin Laden directly to the United States, but U.S. officials decided not to take him because there was not enough evidence at the time to charge him with a crime. (The 9/11 Commission later concluded that there was no evidence that Sudan offered bin Laden directly to the United States, but it does find substantiation that Saudi Arabia was discussed as an option.)

# March 1996 to April 1996: Eager to get from beneath sanctions, Sudan advised the United States that it had a vast intelligence database on bin Laden and more than 200 leading members of his al-Qaida terrorist network. Although FBI officials wanted to parley with the Sudanese and get their files, Secretary of State Madeleine Albright pressed to continue to box the country in economically. No deal was made for the files.

# May 1996: When Sudan finally expelled bin Laden, the terror chieftain left in the company of many other key al-Qaida members, carrying cash. Flying to Afghanistan in a transport plane with his entourage, he made the trip unscathed - even though the United States reportedly knew of the particulars of the journey.

# June 1996 to October 2001: Al-Qaida took control of Ariana Airlines, which transported illegal drugs and arms and became the main conduit of militants traveling incognito as airline employees. The United States failed to act swiftly against the airline.

# 1997: Although the CIA ramped up its Afghanistan operations and recruited some Taliban military leaders, none gets close to bin Laden.

# February 1998: The United States rejected yet another offer of the Sudanese al-Qaida files. Although the FBI remained eager to accept the offer, the official posture was that Sudan's offers were not credible - owing to Sudanese leader al-Turabi's ideologically bond with bin Laden.

# May 1998: The United States developed a plan to capture bin Laden in Afghanistan, using a CIA-owned aircraft that would swoop in from a nearby country, set down on a remote landing strip, and haul him aboard. Involved in the complex scenario that evolved over time was a team of Afghan informants who would kidnap bin Laden from his Tarnak Farm complex. CIA chief George Tenet, however, nixed the operation on grounds that, in his judgment, the impromptu Afghan allies were unreliable.

# August 1998: After the al-Qaida bombings of the U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, President Clinton, in writing, authorized the CIA to arrange the capture of bin Laden, using force. Despite a lot of preliminary groundwork by the CIA, the plan never unfolded - reportedly owing to inadequate intelligence.

# August 1998 to 2000: After the embassy bombings, the United States placed two submarines on station - likely in the Indian Ocean. They were poised to launch cruise missiles at al-Qaida targets, including bin Laden. However, by the time the drone Predator spy plane soared over Afghanistan in late 2000 and famously pinpointed bin Laden on the ground, the submarines had been redeployed elsewhere. Bin Laden escaped unscathed - since the Predator model used at that time was not armed with a missile.

# August 1998: The United States fired about 60 missiles at various al-Qaida training camps in Afghanistan, as well as a dozen missiles at a pharmaceutical factory in Khartoum, Sudan. No key al-Qaida cadre was killed.

# December 1998: The United States once again pinpointed bin Laden in Afghanistan. Although missiles were readied, the strike was called off over fears of collateral damage.

# February 1999: Intelligence put bin Laden at a desert hunting camp in Afghanistan. Cruise missiles are prepped, but royals from the United Arab Emirates are present and the strike is called off.

# May 1999: Bin Laden was reportedly pinpointed again. Tenet nixed attack owing to usual concerns about collateral damage.

# October 1999: A reportedly joint Pakistani Interservices Intelligence/U.S. commando strike to kill bin Laden is waylaid when Gen. Pervez Musharraf took over Pakistan in a coup and subsequently decided to abort the operation.

# May 2000 to August 2001: When the CIA and FBI send a joint investigative team to Sudan, that country again offered to hand over its files on al-Qaida. Once again the offer is rejected.

# September to October 2000: Predator flights over Afghanistan revealed movements of what appears to be bin Laden and his aides. However, because of high winds, the recon flights are discontinued until the spring.

# December 2000: The CIA recommended to the incoming Bush administration to arm the Predator drone and send it over Afghanistan. Bush, however, does not give the necessary nod until after 9/11.

# March 2001: The Russian Permanent Mission at the United Nations secretly submits a detailed report to the U.N. Security Council about bin Laden and his network. Reportedly, the U.S. failure to follow up on the particulars of the report is part of what motivates Jane's Intelligence Review to conclude that the attacks of 9/11 were less of an American intelligence failure than the result of a political decision not to act against bin Laden.

Posted by Aaron at September 9, 2006 02:23 PM

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