Oddly, I have found from my own time in the Tristate area (NY, NJ, and CT) that about 1/3 of people who vote in general elections do so based on perceived favors done by politicians rather than any ideological standing. This tends to favor incumbents. I don't know if Joe will win, but I do know that if he does he won't owe the Democrats anything, which means he won't be backing their filibusters.

(Assuming that the Republicans hold the Senate, their handling of the immigration issue leads me to wonder if they WANT to be the minority party.)