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August 11, 2006
Its going to get violent
When this gets out, Leftists will begin throwing and breaking things:
TO: Ken Mehlman
FROM: Fred Steeper
RE: Base Mobilization Survey Findings and Conclusions
DATE: August 2, 2006
The survey was commissioned by the Republican National Committee to identify the most effective messages to mobilize the Republican Base for the 2006 elections and determine where the Base stands on important issues in this election cycle. It follows similar studies of the Base completed in 2002 and 2003.
Overall support for President Bush and congressional Republicans from the Republican Base is very strong. The generic congressional vote from Republicans is an overwhelming 84% to 6%, within sampling error of what we found for the 2004 elections. An equally impressive 88% to 11% majority of Republicans approve of the way the President is handling his job.
Intended turnout from the Base also is extremely high. Eighty-one percent (81%) say they are almost certain to vote this November, and another 14% say they are very likelyto vote. This, too, is within sampling error of the intended turnout of Republicans for the 2004 elections.
In our test of 50 issues to mobilize the Republican Base for the 2006 elections, weidentified 18 of them, falling into seven general message areas, as having the bestpotential. Three additional issues also have good potential for mobilizing the Base.Seven of the issues concern the Global War on Terror and are viewed by Republicans asfalling into three distinct message areas. Eleven of the issues concern domestic policyissues and are viewed by Republicans as falling into four message areas.
Global War on Terror
Foreign Threats. Ranking at the top of what will motivate Republicans in 2006 isdealing with the foreign threats to our national security and supporting the Presidentsleadership in the War on Terror. Large majorities report satisfaction with the Presidentscommitment to defeat the terrorists in Iraqand his leadership in the War on Terror, ingeneral. In addition to Iraq, concerns about other foreign threats are included here. Forexample, Republicans are very concerned both about Irans sponsorship of terrorism, andits potential of developing nuclear weapons. A huge 87% of the Base expressesextremely strong feelings about one or more of these issues.
Domestic Fight Against Terrorism. Republicans see the renewal of the Patriot Act,better protection of our borders, and NSA surveillance of terrorist phone calls and phonerecords as an interrelated set of issues. Fully 80% of the Base expresses extremely strongfeelings about at least one of these steps to enhance our national security.
Democrats Weakening the Global War on Terror. Of the five issues on which wetested Democratic Party positions, its position on the War on Terror causes the strongestnegative feelings, on average, from Republicans. A 56% majority of the Base hasextremely strong feelings about the Democratic Partys WOT position. Republicans,also, tend to view this as an independent issue from their feelings about foreign threatsand the domestic fight against terrorism. As such, it can provide an importantreinforcement to the other War on Terror messages to mobilize the Republican Base.For these three global War on Terror message areas, 93% of the Republican Base holdsextremely strong feelings about one or more of them.
Domestic Policy Issues
Bush Tax Cuts. The Republican effort to make the Bush tax cuts permanent generatesstrongly held feelings from the Base, more so than for any other domestic initiative testedin the survey. Proposals to erase the Bush tax cuts generate considerable anger from theBase. The two issues together cover 69% of the Base with extremely strong feelingsabout at least one of them.
Cultural Values. This non-economic component in our coalition continues todemonstrate its importance. Included in this message cluster is the Bases satisfactionwith the passage of the ban on partial birth abortions. While the Bases satisfaction withthe confirmations of Justices Roberts and Alito is separate from the cultural issues, thoseconfirmations can be used as part of this motivating message area. An impressive 86% ofthe Base has extremely strong feelings about issues dealing with cultural issues secondin coverage to only the global War on Terror.
Health Care Reform. A message on health care to motivate the Base can be constructedfrom the Bases feelings about medical liability lawsuits and its support of HealthSavings Accounts. About 80% of the Base expresses some degree of approval of reformsto reduce frivolous lawsuits against doctors and hospitals or anger over the currentexistence of such lawsuits. Similarly, 82% of the Base expresses some degree ofapproval of Health Savings Accounts. Combined, 78% of the Base has extremely strongfeelings about one or more of these issues.
Democrat Health Care Proposals. Framing Democrat health care proposals as placinga government bureaucrat between patients and doctors or as creating big governmentrunhealth care can be very effective in mobilizing the Republican Base, especially intandem with the motivating messages on health care reform. Two-thirds of the Base hasextremely strong feelings about one or both of these ways of describing the Democratapproach to health care.
For these four domestic policy areas, 96% of the Republican Base holds extremely strongfeelings about one or more of them.
Other Strong Issues and Messages
Media Coverage of Iraq. One of the strongest issues in the survey is the media neverreporting good news from Iraq. Almost 60% of the Base expresses extremely highdissatisfaction with the media coverage of the situation in Iraq. Moreover, these negativefeelings toward the media are independent of their general feelings about the War onTerror.
Democrat Impeachment/Censorship of President Bush. Democrat talk of impeachingor censoring President Bush causes significant anger in the Republican Base. Aboutthree-in-four Republicans express some degree of anger toward each of these Democraticthreats. Sixty percent (60%) of the Base has extremely negative feelings about theDemocrats impeachment threats placing it among the strongest in the survey.
Democrat Position on Medicare Prescription Drug Program. The Republican Baseseparates this issue from the other health care issues and singles it out with a significantlevel of disapproval. This is especially the case for seniors in our Base. A 55% majorityof our seniors have extremely strong feelings about Democrats who want to take theMedicare prescription drug benefit away from seniors.Seventy-two percent (72%) ofthe Republican seniors express varying degrees of anger with this Democrat position.
These results are based on a national sample of 1,305 past Republican voters conductedby telephone, June 26-29, 2006. The sample is proportionate to size by gender withineight regions.
Posted by Aaron at August 11, 2006 01:50 PM
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Comments
How about illegal immigration? Funny how that didn't make the list. Apparently they didn't survey Reeps living in border states. Would have made second on the list, after WOT.
Posted by: LESLIE at August 11, 2006 06:09 PM
I did notice that myself. It was mentioned under the national security section (which is where it belongs).
It should have had its own section.
Posted by: aaron at August 11, 2006 06:43 PM
border security was mentioned, illegal immigraton was not
Posted by: Leslie at August 12, 2006 03:31 AM
border security was mentioned, illegal immigraton was not
Posted by: Leslie at August 12, 2006 03:32 AM
Ok, on your post, it was listed under "Global WAr on Terror" subtext "Domestic Fight Against Terrorism"
Posted by: Leslie at August 12, 2006 03:42 AM
I don't know if you listen to Rush Limbaugh, but he said that the social security thing didn't sell because it was couched in the "ownership" society when the better word would have been retirement "security."
Illegal immigration might be better termed as border security, because the second you put illegal immigration into the mix, Dems call you a racist xenophobe.
Posted by: Aaron at August 15, 2006 08:45 AM