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July 14, 2006
It really is an art
The people who craft the text to explain their polls are truly artists in the way they try to spin the results for Democrats.
Republicans are in jeopardy of losing their grip on Congress in November. With less than four months to the midterm elections, the latest Associated Press-Ipsos poll found that Americans by an almost 3-to-1 margin hold the GOP-controlled Congress in low regard and profess a desire to see Democrats wrest control after a dozen years of Republican rule.
3 to 1 margin! Holy landslide, Batman! This sentence is quite deceptive in its construction, however. The trick is the use of the word "and." This sentence would lead you to believe that 3 out of every 4 Americans said they desire to see Democrats win in November. What they are really saying is simply this: Americans hold CONGRESS in low regard by a 3 to 1 margin and a simple MAJORITY of Americans have a desire to vote for a Democrat this fall.
Wait. That's not what the sentence was saying, you say. It seems to say that, by a 3 to 1 margin, Americans hold a negative view of the GOP Congress and, by a 3 to 1 margin, Americans profess a desire for Democrats to "wrest control after a dozen years of Republican rule," you say. Well, read on and I will highlight the two portions of the survey that are relevant:
The AP-Ipsos survey asked 789 registered voters if the election for the House were held today, would they vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in their district. Democrats were favored 51 percent to 40 percent.
Not surprisingly, 81 percent of self-described liberals said they would vote for the Democrat. Among moderates, though, 56 percent backed a Democrat in their district and almost a quarter of conservatives _ 24 percent _ said they will vote Democratic.
Democrats also held the advantage among persuadable voters _ those who are undecided or wouldn't say whom they prefer. A total of 51 percent said they were leaning Democrat, while 41 percent were leaning Republican.
Now do you see how they lie in the lead? The other thing to notice is that 56 percent backed A DEMOCRAT in their district. A DEMOCRAT could mean someone for the school board or county commission.
Why didn't they include the number of people who are supporting A REPUBLICAN in their district? Probably because the numbers would add up to more than 100 percent!
But the paragraph is totally misleading.
Posted by Aaron at July 14, 2006 05:23 AM
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