Paul - this will help you understand the psychology of discipline as a judicial act of removing guilt vs. deterrence (both are valid, but one is mental and the other physical--criminal).
*****when God begins the final discipline of Israel (which lasts through the Church Age and Tribulation and concluding at the Second Advent with the fulfillment of the Abrahamic Covenants yet to be fulfilled)
Obama HQ is TIGHTLY locked up. There's a ton a security out, looks like Jack Bauer set up a perimeter. SWAT teams holding rifles, Chicago cops, secret service, a general flood of security. They're also randomly redirecting and stopping traffic, which is a pain for the people who drive down here (I take the train), but it's necessary to avoid truck bombs or similar (G-d forbid). Trucks in general aren't allowed within 2 blocks, which is making deliveries hell.
I see this every day because the president-elect's offices are in the Kluczynski Federal Building, which is across the street fromt he Dirksen Federal courthouse, next to the main post office, around the corner from my Loop office, around the other corner from where I get lunch, and a skip and a jump from the Daley Center (state court).
The security folks, fed and state, are courteous, but very agressive. I saw one guy who took out a camera to take a pic of a giant piece of modern art in front of the post office, and in less than a second they were in front of him asking him what he was taking a picture of. I've also had my attorney ID inspected 3 x as much as is normal.
This is kind of frightening because it reminds you of the crazies and hatemongers out there who want to commit violence. I didn't vote for Obama and I don't agree with his policies, but I can plainly see that his electon has brought a great deal of good will and an uplifting of spirit among the African-American community. The prospect of something happening to any president or president-elect is frightening, but especially one who broke the race barrier.
So don't get me wrong, I'm really glad the security is there. Opposition to Obama, or Pelosi, or Mayor Daley, or Senator Bedfellow of Bloom County should be in the forms of words, ideas, and votes. I hope that the president-elect's security only increases.
Minnesota Recount: With 82% of Votes Recounted, Legal Fights Overshadow Process
Senator Norm Coleman's lead is now greater than it was at the start, but observers note that with the huge number of challenges, the result won't be known until late December.
The Star Tribune has analyzed the reasons absentee ballots were rejected in 28 counties, and only two counties -- Ramsey and Itasca -- specifically cite election officials' error. In Ramsey County, it appeared that 53 rejections were tied to administrative error.
More than 6,400 rejected absentee ballots are becoming the focus in Minnesota's contested Senate election, as the state Canvassing Board prepares to decide whether to let some into the recount.
Campaigns for Democrat Al Franken and Republican Sen. Norm Coleman reached back into history to make their arguments before the board weighs in on Wednesday. Franken — who trailed Coleman by 215 votes going into the recount — is pushing to include ballots it says were wrongly rejected. Coleman, the incumbent, wants them kept out.
Not all the ballots would be fair game if Franken prevails in his push. Some were turned away because the voter wasn't properly registered. Other voters showed up in person after submitting a mail ballot, canceling the first ballot.
The Franken campaign has been pressing hardest for information on voters whose absentee ballots didn't count because there were problems with their signatures and those where possible clerical errors occurred.
Lawyers for the ex-"Saturday Night Live" personality are citing a 1962 court decision to argue that ballots should not be excluded because of technical mistakes or "an innocent failure" to comply with voting statutes.
Minnesota Senate Race Recount, Day 6: Coleman Increases Challenge Rate, Extends Lead
The Minneapolis Star Tribune is reporting that incumbent senator Norm Coleman has bounced back from a significant decline in his lead thanks to an increasing number of challenges to votes for Democratic challenger Al Franken, and now has a 210 vote lead in the race for 99th seat in the U.S. Senate.
Slightly more than 75% of ballots have been re-counted, including the most heavily DFL-leaning precincts.
Coleman's lead had declined from 215 to 120 out of 2.9 million cast by Saturday evening, but an exponential increase in Coleman's challenge rate has reversed that trend. Al Franken's challenge rate has been more-or-less static since Saturday, when Coleman's challenge rate rocketed upwards.
The total number of challenges now is about equal.
Franken's campaign puts Coleman's lead in the double-digits, according to the Star Tribune.
The Star Tribune estimates that Franken has gained 46 votes, not including any of the ~3,000 ballot challenges.
Statistician Gives Franken Statistical Edge in Crystal Ball Analysis
Nate Silver, a statistician who blogs at http://www.fivethirtyeight.com, has factored in the differing challenge rates and is predicting a Franken victory by at least 48 votes.
The various versions of the model project a Franken win by between 48 and 136 votes once all ballots are re-counted and all challenges are resolved. However -- disclaimer! -- the margins of error on these regressions are HIGH, e.g. at least +/- 200 votes to achieve a 95 percent certainty level. The point is not really to project a precise margin of victory (or defeat) for Franken but to suggest Franken probably has made more progress in the recount than is implied by the state's in-progress totals and may in fact be the favorite to win it.
This Pundit continues to predict a Coleman victory, probably by the one vote I didn't find time to cast on Election Day.
It's still close. With 65% of ballots counted, Republican senator Norm Coleman's lead has decreased from 215 votes to 120, out of 2.9 million cast, according to the Minneapolis Star Tribune.
Al Franken is closing, but not at a rate which will oust Coleman from his seat.
Asked whether he would concede the race if the Canvassing Board certified Franken as the winner -- as Coleman had suggested that Franken should do that post-election morning -- the senator noted that at the time his 700-plus-vote lead over Franken was more substantial and that he hadn't slept in 36 hours. Now, he said, "I don't think I'd have made the same statement."
A handful of counties will continue counting today, and perhaps even Sunday, in hopes that their work may be substantially finished by Thanksgiving. Minnesota Secretary of State Mark Ritchie said Friday that 75 percent of the recount would be completed by tonight. Ritchie also said the Canvassing Board will meet Wednesday to discuss what to do about the Franken campaign's request to consider rejected absentee ballots and count them if they were improperly turned aside.
UPDATE: According to Minnesota Public Radio, there were twice as many challenges day 3 as there were in the first two days combined.
As the race gets even closer, Coleman's operatives are expecting post-recount legal action from the Franken campaign. Franken's legal team has contacted at least one person whose absentee ballot was rejected, and is examining more such ballots.
I keep saying that in Minnesota we know what we're doing and this won't get ugly, but I've been wrong before. Ask anyone -- Aaron, Gayle, Kitty, Charles or Pam.
Especially Pam.
This is getting tense. With the filibuster potentially at stake, Franken will get all the support he needs from the national party. Bill Clinton is stumping for the Democratic challenger, Jim Martin, in the Georgia runoff.
Meanwhile, Senate Republicans gave 7-count convicted felon, Alaska Senator Ted Stevens, a standing ovation (violating Senate rules, I gather) for his crimes.
Democrats added to the love:
Senators from both sides of the aisle on Thursday gave speeches praising Stevens.
Senate Republican minority leader Mitch McConnell, said that no senator "in the history of the US Senate did more for his state than Senator Ted Stevens."
As he spoke, 91-year-old Democratic Senator Robert Byrd, shouted from his wheelchair "That's right, that's right."
Byrd argued that Stevens should be remembered for his political career, not his fall from grace.
"We all make mistakes, I have made more of them than I have hair follicles, but thank God, that we are judged in the next world by the good we do in this world," Byrd said.
"And Ted Stevens has done a lot of good ... Ted, I love you."
Democrat Al Franken trailed incumbent Republican Norm Coleman by 215 votes -- out of 2.9 million cast -- going into today's recount, and he's already picked up 28 votes due to lightly marked ballots not counted by old machines in Duluth's St. Louis County, a Democrat stronghold. Duluth is a port city at the western edge of the Great Lakes.
Coleman operatives said they lost less votes than they expected in the county. Franken also gained 4 votes in St. Paul's Ramsey county. St. Paul is the capitol of Minnesota.
The process has been smooth, without the chaos that characterized the Florida recount in 2000.
Minnesota is a pretty reasonable place, and we just want to get the election over with.
I feel it's unlikely that Franken will be able to catch Coleman, unless Minneapolis voters -- another Democratic stronghold -- really messed up the ballots. But with Franken only gaining 4 votes in St. Paul, Minneapolis' "Twin" city, a wide swing in the Minne-apple seems unlikely.
If Franken does pull out a win, the runoff in Georgia will become quite a circus!
With the first day complete tonight in a state-mandated recount in the contest for U.S. Senate between Republican incumbent Norm Coleman and Democratic challenger Al Franken, Coleman’s lead shrank by nearly 20 percent.
Based on a Star Tribune analysis of partial recount numbers released this evening by the Secretary of State’s Office, Coleman lost a net of 41 votes and now holds a 174-vote advantage. He started the day up by 215.
An Open Letter to the Log Cabin Republicans - DC Chapter
I wrote the following email to my chapter of the Log Cabin Republicans of which I am a member. The email responded to a request to protest California's Proposition 8 near the reflecting pool in the on the Capitol Mall.
I have not received a response [UPDATE!!! RESPONSE RECEIVED - SEE BELOW]:
--- On Fri, 11/14/08, Aaron Matthew Arnwine wrote:
From: Aaron Matthew Arnwine
Subject: LCR/DC - Prop 8 Protest Tomorrow
To:
Date: Friday, November 14, 2008, 6:23 PM
As a dues paying member, I fail to see why we are protesting against the will of the people of California as the DC chapter of the LCR; it smacks of a spectacle and since Prop 8 passed protesting cannot reverse it. You cannot challenge the constitutionality of a part of the constitution - it would be like the Supreme Court overturning parts of the US Constitution. It cannot happen.
And with the vulgarity and desecration of churches going on out west by "BASH BACK" and other vigilante "Lavender Mobs" in CA and MI, do we want the organization associated in the minds of the public with the current demonstrations?
And is there room in the organization for people who believe that marriage must be won legislatively and not through rogue judges? Did I sign up with the Log Cabin Republicans or the HRC? We do things differently: constitutionally and affirmatively as Republicans; irrational vituperation and emotional eruptions are the realm of the Left.
The undemocratic usurpation of the judicial system by the left is one of the biggest reasons we are LOSING all strides we've made in mainstreaming ourselves. Why was there a Proposition 8? Answer that question and you will see why this is counter productive.
--
AMA
Aaron Matthew Arnwine
I believe I got a gracious and diplomatic response and I guess I am gonna have to crash the next meeting with my H8.
Aaron,
Thanks for your response to our email blast. We provided information about the march as a courtesy to our members. With hundreds of people connected to our chapter, we have members with a variety of interests and viewpoints, so we try to take that into consideration when planning our events and letting members know about other events that are not Log Cabin-specific but may be of interest. As you may know Log Cabin Republicans took a lead role in opposing Propostion 8, and several DC Log Cabin Republicans were very involved in the effort as well.
We always welcome your suggestions for the organization and look forward to seeing you soon.
Please let me know if you have any other questions - hope to see you at the next chapter meeting.
Sincerely, Matt Cook, Board Member, DC Chapter
The text of the invitation:
Dear Aaron Matthew,
The passage of Prop 8 was among the more lamentable results of the
election last week. In order to keep this issue before the public
and ensure continued support for efforts to repeal this proposition
in two years, Equality California is asking for our help in support
of our California compatriots.
For your immediate consideration, there are two steps you can take.
FIRST, join the DC Protest Against CA Proposition 8.
Date: TOMORROW, November 15, 2008
Time: 1:30pm - 4:30pm
Location: Gather at the CAPITOL REFLECTING POOL on the eastern edge
of the Mall (3rd St)
SECOND, sign a PETITION DEMANDING THAT WE BE GIVEN OUR EQUALITY BACK!
This Petition can be found at http://www.eqca.org . Scroll down to Take Action
and click on Sign the Petition.
This issue is far from over, and we must show DC and California that we
are united in what we will be a long, hard but ultimately successful
effort to overturn Prop 8 -- if we can keep up the pressure and support.
I did not receive a message from LCR/DC lamenting the election of Barack Obama as president.
Senator Norm Coleman's lead is now greater than it was at the start, but observers note that with the huge number of challenges, the result won't be known until late December.
