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April 28, 2005
The Tragedy of Russia's Collapse
Vladimir Putin was heard to bemoan the disintegration of the old Soviet Union. While there are plenty in academia who would join in that lament, David Brooks is more concerned with the disintegration of Russia:
As the Soviet regime disintegrated, Russian fertility rates fell through the floor, from 2.19 births per woman in 1986-87 to 1.17 in 1999. Birth rates have now recovered somewhat, but they are not even close to replacement levels. According to Eberstadt, Russia currently has about 160 deaths for every 100 births.
The more shocking reason Russia's population is declining is that people are dying younger. Russians are now much less healthy than their grandparents were in 1960. In the past three decades, Russian mortality rates have risen by 40 percent. Russian life expectancies now approximate those in Bangladesh and are below India's.
As Brooks points out, the irony is that this is all happening at the same time that Russia is experiencing strong economic growth. He foresees similar circumstances in China when the totalitarian regime begins to crumble there.
Posted by pat at April 28, 2005 09:54 AM
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Comments
It's possible that the figures on birth rates and mortality were as cooked under the soviet system as most other statistics. I read an essay by Bob Heinlien way back in the early eighties that said that the birth rate in Russia wasn't up to replacement levels. And this after a trip there. I think the name of the essay was "Pravda Means Truth".
Posted by: IaintBacchus at April 28, 2005 05:34 PM